There are few television programmes which have been such an instant, global hit as Deal or No Deal. Originally devised by the Dutch studio, Endemol (the same one that brought Big Brother to the world) Deal or No Deal has shows in more than 60 countries, has a version on every continent (except Antarctica) and has a number of popular online and offline games based on it, including as a staple for online casinos like SkyVegas (pictured).
It has also attracted considerable attention around the world, most lately being referred to the UK Gambling Commission for the fact that it may in breach of current gambling rules. The Guardian newspaper pointed out that any game played for money which has no element of skill requires a gambling license. Conversations between Channel 4 and the government are believed to be ongoing.
That said, not all of the critical attention around the world has been negative. The game attracted significant attention from mathematicians, psychologists and economics on the basis that it’s a ‘natural’ (although, not entirely natural) decision-making game, with fairly large sums of money involved.
The researchers found that, unlike most people, the players became more risk-averse as it looked like their potential winnings were slipping away. This could suggest that as people shift onto a losing streak they are more likely to throw caution to the wind and end up with nothing than taking home a middling result. Some researchers drew parallels between this and the actions of certain investment banks in the run up to the economic crisis, although such a conclusion is perhaps overstretched.
The research also found that people tend to react to the numbers in relativistic terms. That is to say that their perception of the value of certain boxes changes depending on what other boxes have been played. This leads to a steady diminishing, or increasing, of expectations rather than players simply looking at each number in its real terms.
Another interesting facet of the gameplay is how people react to the banker. The mysterious banker figure offers players the opportunity to take the money and run, and consistently offers deals that are significantly lower than what should be offered on a purely theoretical basis using number theory. This disposes the audience, or the player, against the banker and encourages players to continue through to the end regardless of what is later offered.
Regardless of how people play the game, or the secrets behind it, Deal or No Deal is massively successful and has an avid fan base, particularly in the UK. We can expect it to be around for a good while yet to come.